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Bob Carpenter: Unfortunately, Nate's methods are largely proprietary. But I urge you to check out this nifty paper from Harvard Business School on the same topic: Jensen, Shane T., Blake McShane, and Abraham J. Wyner. 2009. Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Hitting Performance in Baseball. Bayesian Analysis. It takes a curve-fitting approach to a player's career trajectory rather than a time warping one, but from the level of this discussion, the result's similar. In the Netflix Prize competition, the final winners used the same idea to weight more recent reviews more heavily and to treat separately batch reviews (presumably entered for movies seen less recently). Time warping's usually used in speech recognition to account for how long vowels can last in a word -- it's pretty arbitrary in English. Though HMMs have taken over from the time warping approaches.  Dec. 7, 2009, 4:29pm

tony: what are you incinerating?  Dec. 3, 2009, 10:41am