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We are going to target you with behavorial ads--and blog about it posted on August 20, 2008
 Marketing the book
Here's the idea. The Numerati is about tracking and predicting
people by their data. So why not use a domain of that very
science--behavioral advertising--to spread the word to the most likely
readers?
That's what we're going to do. In the coming weeks, my publisher,
Houghton Mifflin, will be running an advertising campaign for The
Numerati on the vast network of sites affiliated with Platform
A/Tacoda, a division of AOL. We'll be studying the patterns of the
people who click on Numerati ads. Which web sites do they come from?
What types of profiles do they have? Do some profiles click more on one
type of ad than another?
We'll
make adjustments, and I'll describe the process, step by step, on this
blog. I'll also be sounding out readers on
the conclusions we reach and the advertisements we distribute. Maybe
you can steer us along a more reasonable path. Or perhaps the data will
lead us along a path that appears to defy all logic--but still works.
Are
there things I cannot talk about? Only one that I can think of: Money.
I'm not privvy to the details about how much this campaign costs. But
if I can wheedle any numbers out of the process, I'll do my best to
blog them.
Here's how the campaign should work. Our team
starts out by imagining the ideal readers for The Numerati. This
decision is made the old fashioned way, with the gut. For starters,
we'll be looking at two types of people, the datamining types who
resemble The Numerati and the arty-literature type crowd that might
page through an article about The Numerati in a magazine like The New
Yorker. I may have quibbles about those choices. Maybe you do too. But
the process has to start somewhere.
Over the first week, the ads
will be dropped along the Internet pathways of people who meet these
profiles. I'll go into much more detail as this process continues. As
Web surfers begin clicking (and ignoring), the data may show that the
Numerati/New Yorker types we imagined may be less interested in the
book than folks from entirely different tribes. At that point, we'll
start tweaking. All the while, the data will be pouring in, and I'll be
blogging about it.
Is this the new way to find readers? Our
opening premise, based largely on our guts, is that it is. But the data
will tell the story. That's the way of the Numerati.
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The Numerati in the UK posted on August 20, 2008
Marketing the book
| The British publisher Jonathan Cape, an imprint of Random House, is publishing The Numerati in the UK and much of the Commonwealth. Pub date is Nov. 6. They chose to keep the subtitle that I had in my original proposal: How They'll Get My Number--And Yours.
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The Houghton Mifflin team and I decided to drop that, preferring to leave the title by itself. The trade-off on subtitles: They add desciption and context, but also tend to put you in a smaller box. The original title in the proposal, by the way, was The Age of Numbers. Houghton Mifflin thought it sounded a bit portentous and dry, though I have the impression that the Brits preferred it.
In later months, the Numerati will come out in at least nine foreign-language editions. (We're hoping to land more.) They include: German, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, Hebrew, Chinese (simplifed and complex), Korean, and Japanese.
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Operations research blog critiques book posted on August 19, 2008
Marketing the book
I grow very apprehensive any time that experts in mathematics, computer science or operations research reach for my book. The fact is, they know a lot more about these matters than I do. Good chance they'll object to my simplifications and resent my efforts to popularize. So it was with trepidation that I clicked Michael Trick's operations research blog. Trick is a business professor at Carnegie Mellon U's Tepper School. I interviewed him while researching the book.
Here's his wrap-up paragraph:
I greatly enjoyed reading the book, and did so in one sitting. For
someone like me who perhaps could be seen as one of the Numerati, there
is not much technical depth to the book, but there are a number of good
examples that could be used in the classroom or in conversation. There
is a bit too much “The Numerati know much about you and can use it for
good or EEEVVVIILLLL” for my taste, but perhaps I take comfort in
understanding how poorly data mining and similar methods work in
predicting individual behavior. The book is very much about modeling
people, so essentially ignores the way operations research is used to
automate business decisions and processes. This is a book primarily
about what I would call data mining and clustering, so there are wide
swathes of the “numerati” field that are not covered. But for a
popular look on how our mathematics is used to characterize and predict
human behavior, The Numerati is an extremely interesting book.
This is probably a good time for me to make something clear: no one who
knows a lot of math should buy this book hoping to learn more. This is
not a math book. It has not one formula or equation in it, not one
Greek letter. This is a book much more about a quest. The Numerati are
using their powerful tools and methods to understand and predict our
movements and behavior. They're trying to figure out humans. That's
what the book's about.
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How BusinessWeek takes on the Numerati posted on August 19, 2008
News
Those of us in media come face-to-face with the Numerati every day. At big companies like Google and Yahoo, and at smaller ones like DayLife and Inform, they're writing algorithms that can find news faster than we can, and then match it to readers' interest (and, naturally, include the most relevant ads). Their algorithms are supplanting our old gut instincts and dog-earred rolodexes. So what's a venerable media company to do?
BusinessWeek unveiled its response (in the NYTimes) yesterday. It's called Business Exchange. It's a big bid by our company to create communities around topics of interest, and to mine the smarts and connections of people who visit our sites. It's still a work in progress. Comments, a crucial component, are not yet activated. I won't spell out here the changes I want to see, but if you take a few minutes to visit a few of the sites, I'd love to hear your thoughts. (Portfolio's Felix Salmon, for one, is skeptical.)
Why do this? As I see it (and I'm just a small participant in this effort) this is an attempt to take on algorithms with community (and to produce plenty of content that can be easily found by search engines). In that sense, Business Exchange is a distant cousin to Wikipedia, and a much closer one to Digg and LinkedIn (which has an online partnership with BW).
I've been on the site through much of its alpha stage and have launched three topic pages: Social Mathematical Modeling. (I originally pushed to have Numerati in the title. It may have seemed like an act of brazen marketing, but I want/wanted the page to pop up when people searched for my book.) I also have pages on cloud computing and LinkedIn. (The pages are all way out of date, because I didn't work on them while on vacation, and there isn't much community yet to back me up... And it looks like you have to register as an alpha tester to get access.)
As I say, there are lots of improvements to be made. The BW team is certainly paying attention to blogs. BL Ochman, an alpha tester, complained Friday on her blog that the site differentiated between "objective" news reports and blogs. I see today that that characterization, noxious to most bloggers, has already been amended on the site.
The big question, of course, is whether people will labor away to build these news sites, cutting and pasting URLs of interesting stories, posts and reports onto the topics pages. (Another version of this post is on Blogspotting.) Update: Looks like alpha testers can't get on now. I'm hearing that they should be able to access the site by the end of the month. Sorry for the delay.
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Gaming Amazon to get fast Numerati posted on August 17, 2008
Marketing the book
My editor got the first few copies of the book and just sent me a couple. I figured that was an author's perk--to get a copy of the book a month before launch. Then I checked Amazon, and saw that the book was in stock! I promptly bought one and shipped it to friends, who will get it on Aug. 21, more than three weeks before the Sept. 15 launch.
Here's what's strange. The five others I had pre-ordered were still scheduled to be shipped in mid September. But when I opened each order, changed the mailing option and then changed it back, they lined up for August shipping. I'm not sure what's going on. I imagine that they have a limited number of books and want to give people who order them now immediate satisfaction. Those who pre-ordered? They've already paid and can wait--unless they take it upon themselves to game Amazon's computer. (Now I see it's also available at B&N.
)
Update: Just heard from my editor. She says that books typically ship a month before pub date, and that they'll arrive in book stores, starting in the east and spreading west, over the next couple of weeks.
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Data or datum? posted on August 16, 2008
Writing the book
I talk to a lot of people about data. Some of them are experts. And every time I hear one of them say, "Well the data tell us..." or "The data clearly show..." I wince, because that person is going to have a little issue with my book. I chose in the book to make data a singular noun. I see it like sand or hair, or other collections of things that we express in the singular. I went this way because the book is oriented toward non-specialists, and most of them--like me--never use the singular form, datum.
In the same vein, I reversed the copy-editor on many occasions when she replaced my "who" with "whom." When I'm talking, I don't say, "Whom are you talking to?"
If the book had been about baseball, I would have upset the purists by referring to Runs Batted In as RBIs. I would never say that Ryan Howard leads the league in RBI (if he still does at this point, which I doubt). And while I'm on it, it would be very hard to bring myself to replace attorney generals or the proper attorneys general.
By the way, two of the first copies of the book arrived yesterday in Montclair. We're in Erie, and will see them after a seven-hour drive.
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| Ryan Howard. Does he produce lots of RBI, or RBIs?
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Ira Glass on storytelling posted on August 12, 2008
Writing the book
I came across this clip on a Booklist blog (while searching fruitlessly for the review of The Numerati on the site.) I enjoyed this talk, and especially appreciate the point that even when we spend months and months researching and piling up data, in the end we have to be storytellers.
Well, since I can't find the review on the site, I'll cut and paste the text that was emailed to me. I get a special kick out of the next-to-last sentence, which seems to suggest that humanity's last great hope in the battle against machines is... sarcasm.
[STARRED]The Numerati.
Baker, Stephen (Author)
Sep 2008. 256 p. Houghton, hardcover, $26.00. (9780618784608). 303.48.
Every click we make, every cell phone call, every credit-card purchase enlarges our “digital dossiers,” business journalist Baker explains in this bracing behind-the-screen investigation into the booming world of data mining and analysis. Our digital echoes collect in a vast ocean of data that marketers and government agencies alike are eager to trawl, if only it were charted. Enter the top-notch mathematicians Baker dubs the Numerati. Baker gamely visits eerily high-tech companies and speaks with algorithm whizzes intent on quantifying everything we do in all arenas of life in order to mathematically model humanity and manipulate our behavior. Baker’s report on microtargeted marketing, the use of workplace data to “optimize” employees, the scrutiny of online social networks, and the robotic reading of millions of blogs supports his warning that we’re “in danger of becoming data serfs—slaves to the information we produce.” This is a fascinating outing of the hidden yet exploding world of digital surveillance and stealthy intrusions into our decision-making processes as we buy food, make a date, or vote for president. Yet, as Baker assures us, we are not helpless. For one thing, machines still can’t process sarcasm. Read and resist.
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Indiana voucher: Use it today? posted on August 9, 2008
General
Imagine this: Each one of us is born with one Indiana voucher. That allows you to pass directly from the Ohio state line to Illinois, or vice versa. These vouchers are miraculous, but people tend not to use them. They worry that they might be driving in some sort of emergency, perhaps through a blizzard, from Kentucky, say, to Milwaukee, and they'd hate to have already spent their Indiana voucher. (Who knows how many people have died with their Indiana vouchers unspent?)
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| Well, my wife are in the pretty Lake Erie resort of Vermillion, Ohio, about 50 miles west of Cleveland. As we head off toward Madison, we're wrestling with the thorny hypothetical: Do we use one of our Indiana vouchers today? I say no. Let's save it for winter. Then I wonder: Any chance we could pool our Indiana vouchers and trade them for a single Pennsylvania voucher? (I think the Being John Malkovich guy might want this concept for his next movie...)
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New Yorker cartoon on voter-tracking posted on August 7, 2008
Datamining
Fun New Yorker cartoon in the Aug. 4 issue by
Robert Mankoff. I wish I could cut-and-paste it here, but can't. Three
politicos are sitting around a table, and one of them says: "Look,
we've got to improve our voter-tracker algorithms if we want to ame
more accurate wild-ass guesses."
In the voter chapter of The Numerati I follow one of these
tracking companies, Spotlight Analysis, as they race through our
consumer and demographic data and attempt to place us into "values"
tribes. The idea is that people have certain core values, about things
like family, freedom, community, and that if you figure that out, good
chance you can read them politically and, as Manoff says, make more
accurate wild-ass guesses.
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What would you do if you could relive your 20s? (assuming you're older...) posted on August 7, 2008
General
I asked people that question on Twitter, and this is what I got in response. I was thinking about my kids and my own 20s. I'd have lots of advice for the younger me. (If you like people, let them know it, would be one...) But if I had gotten my act together in my 30s, then I probably wouldn't have had a chance to put together the pieces in the 30s, which I've been happy with ever since. So I think I'll leave my 20s self unperturbed.
The responses:
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smkorby: @stevebaker #1 If I could relive my 20's I would work less and focused more on what I wanted to do. #2 I am doing exactly that now.
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traveladdict227: @stevebaker
yeah, but in our 20's some of us were living and re-living it
simultaneously. Can't these kids multi-task? Man, this generation.
about 8 hours ago ·
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madge707: @stevebaker realize that staying in an unhealthy job environment (awful boss, & hours) is not worth it
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moz: @stevebaker I would've cared much less about what people thought and said - and trusted my instincts. I try to do that now :)
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outtacontext: @stevebaker Thought all I could do was teach after college. Devoted 2 much energy 2 finding teaching job. The Net changed my working life.
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2 days ago ·
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ironicsans: @stevebaker 1) I would have freelanced from the beginning, instead of being a staffer. 2) I recently made the switch, and not looking back.
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ThomasFrey: @stevebaker
Reliving my 20s, I'd skip college & surround myself with
entrepreneurs. The information is far more valuable. I'm doing it now.
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abstanfield: @stevebaker Career advice for my 20s: I wish I had listened more to differing opinions. I thought I knew it all. I know better now.
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tcpeter: @stevebaker OK, seriously now. I'd have completed my degree then (not in my 30's). I would have sought ownership chances sooner.
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jenrobinson: Rtwt @stevebaker: Career advice: If you could relive your 20s, what would you do or avoid? 2nd Question: Any chance you can do it now?
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josh_sternberg: @stevebaker would have finished the phd route and continued to teach. and play more music with my band. i miss my 20s.
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debra47: @stevebaker Think I would have mastered another foreign language in addition to the Spanish. I am studying Italian on my own using the net
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zackgonzales: @stevebaker I would've quit smoking sooner but otherwise I would've kept it the same. my 20s were crazed
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easterwoodc: @stevebaker Career advice: get more connected with people outside of my little life. trying to do it at 33.
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Sep. 12 - Fly to Toronto - Toronto [more info]
Sep. 14 - Toronto, McNally's Books - Toronto [more info]
Sep. 15 - The Numerati launches - North America [more info]
Sep. 16 - Google New York [more info]
click here to view entire calendar
The Numerati
Baker, Stephen (Author)
Sep 2008. 256 p. Houghton, hardcover, $26.00. (9780618784608). 303.48.
Every click ...
- Booklist - Booklist
The Numerati
Stephen Baker. Houghton Mifflin, $26 (256p) ISBN 978-0-618-78460-8
In this captivating exploration of digit...
- Publishers Weekly - PW
click here to read all reviews
Steve Baker answers questions about The Numerati
- August 1, 2008
My Math Career
- July 20, 2008
A few more math covers
- July 19, 2008
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